Senior Project Initial Research

Three Annotated Articles

Overpopulation: The Perennial Myth

Summary: This article presents a great alternative point of view of the crisis regarding overpopulation of humans on the Earth. While many seem to be concerned with the supposed lack of resources including food and living space, the author provides information that disregards these concerns. The author uses historical analysis as well as provides facts and data. The direction I would like to take with my Senior Project is to tackle both sides of the issue: the current threat that an overpopulated world presents and the notion that the issue is not quite an overpopulation of humans on this world, but rather an underpopulation. This article provides information that can help with the latter subject of my project.

Quotes of Interest:

“And the fear of overpopulation did not begin with Tertullian. One finds similar concerns expressed in the writings of Plato and Aristotle in the fourth century B.C., as well as in the teachings of Confucius as early as the sixth century B.C.”

According to the author, the prediction/scare of an overpopulated world stretches back centuries – however, such predictions have never actually come true. This may say something about human's and their constant worrisome of the end of the world in some form or another.

“As any population graph clearly shows, the world has and is experiencing a population explosion that began in the eighteenth century. Population rose sixfold in the next 200 years. But this explosion was accompanied, and in large part made possible, by a productivity explosion, a resource explosion, a food explosion, an information explosion, a communications explosion, a science explosion, and a medical explosion. “

This notion has been overlooked by many of the articles I have read as well as most of the folks that I have spoken with in the past regarding overpopulation. The notion that population growth is related to the industrial revolution is an interesting one. If there are more resources, food, and technology advancements, there must be a correlation with birth rates increasing. The rest of the article goes more in depth on this quote.

“Many experts believe that even with no advances in science or technology we currently have the capacity to feed adequately, on a sustainable basis, 40 to 50 billion people, or about eight to ten times the current world population. And we are currently at the dawn of a new agricultural revolution, biotechnology, which has the potential to increase agricultural productivity dramatically.”

This quote disregards the concern of not being able to feed a largely, populated world. Unfortunately, most third-world countries don't have such luxury of advancement in technology. The issue doesn't seem to be how meet the demand of food, but rather the methods in providing the food to everyone.

The Overpopulation Lie

Summary: This article also provides facts and figures regarding the false fear of an overpopulated world and presents the argument that the world will soon face an underpopulated crisis. The article focuses on third-world countries. While the article is an excerpt of a cover story, it provides excellent facts and helps me lead in the direction I would like to go with this side of my project.

Quotes of Interest:

“Yet, while the one-billionth citizen of India was born last year, Japan, if it continues its current abortion policies and fails to raise its average birth rate of 1.4 children per married couple, will have fewer than 500 people by the year 3000. This is not a prophecy of the mad Aum Shinrikyo cult, but rather a pronouncement of Japan's Ministry of Health and Welfare.”

It seems as though in the attempt to curb the growth in population, nations are creating a new crisis: underpopulation. In an underpopulated world, advancements in technology become more difficult – thus limiting ourselves.

“Rather than booming, as one might expect in the face of such plenty, the world's population is aging and in decline. As fertility rates fall and abortion, contraception and life spans increase, the world will soon enter a new paradigm in which the elderly outnumber the young. In 1975, the mean global age was 22. In 2050, it will be 38. Europe, South Korea and Japan will be particularly hard hit by this phenomenon.”

These are facts that the article presents. It provides evidence that the world's population is in decline. It also presents the idea that that there will soon be more elderly people than younger. The comparison between the decline in fertility rates and life spans is an interesting one.

“By 2050, the population of Russia will be down to 150 million. In the 1970s, Russia's population rivaled America's, at more than 225 million people.”

This is also an excellent example of the an underpopulated crisis. It is a statistic that counters the argument of the world facing an overpopulation crisis.

Population and Resources: How Can Population Growth and Resources be Brought into Balance

Summary: Rather than to focus on the idea that population growth shouldn't be the concern, this article presents facts and figures about the overpopulation crisis that the media seems to be interested in. In a way, it is a counter-argument to ideas presented in the two previous articles.

Quotes of Interest:

“New agricultural approaches will be needed, such as meat production without growing animals, better rain-fed agriculture and irrigation management, genetic engineering for higher-yielding crops, precision agriculture and aquaculture, drought-tolerant crop varieties, and saltwater agriculture on coastlines to produce food for human and animals, biofuels, and pulp for the paper industry as well as to absorb CO2, reduce the drain on freshwater agriculture and land, and increase employment.”

This idea provides a guideline in what will be required to meet the demand of a larger population. Specifically, new agricultural methods will be required to provide for such a large population.

“To reduce the economic burden on younger generations and to keep up living standards, people will work longer and create many forms of tele-work, part-time work, and job rotation.”

This quote is related to the previous article which states that there will soon be more elderly than younger people. It states a new challenge that will be faced if this prediction becomes a reality.

“Conventional breeding techniques can take 9–12 years; hence, a food crisis may be inevitable. To keep up with population and economic growth, food production should double in 30 years and animal protein may increase 50% by 2020, which increases demands on water and land, further increasing prices and competition between rural and urban requirements.”

This excerpt states that in order to keep up with the growing population, new methods of growing food will need to be developed – ultimately leading to more processed foods. It seems as though traditional, organic food growing may no longer be suitable to provide for a larger population.

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After much thought and consideration regarding what theme my Senior Project will highlight, I chose to do a bit of research on the notion of our world being overpopulated by 2110. Initially, I thought my research would yield results that supported the concern of overpopulation – however, as I dug deeper, I found out that the growth in population that is currently occuring is not only going to peak within the next fifty years, but also some nations will face a new form of crisis: underpopulation.

There are certainly concerns about an overpopulated world. These concerns include damage to our environment, how to feed such a large number of humans, and where to place them. As the population increases, the rise in hunger will rise and creating sufficient food will be a challenge. Living space is also a large concern that will need to be addressed with the increase in population. By 2050, the world's population is expected to grow to 9.2 Billion. According to my research, the number of people that currently live in the slums will double.

Despite many concerns that go alongside an overpopulated world, it seems as though the real concern is underpopulation. There are currently 18 nations in the world that have low fertility rates. The average fertility rate to keep a sustained population is 2.1 – however, many nations have a fertility rate lower than that with signs of a continued decrease. This creates many concerns for these nations and has prompted world leaders to provide incentives to promote women to conceive more. These large nations include China, Russia, Germany, Italy, and France. Other nations are still over the fertility rate, but signs of decrease are beginning to emerge. This underpopulated world will cause an inbalance between the young and elderly. With younger people, a larger work force will be needed which may cause the retirement age of the elderly to be pushed back. This could possibly decrease life expectancy, which has had an increasing rate in since the boom in population.

While the notion of overpopulation is certainly present today more than ever, I believe new focus should be put on the idea of an underpopulated world. I would like to convey this new concern through my Senior Project. The idea of my Senior Project is somewhat simple: create a video highlighting the effects of an overpopulated world and what new problems will arise within the next fifty years due to an increasing population as well as present the idea of an underpopulated world. From what I can tell in my initial research, there is plenty of data to support both ideas to create an informative, high-quality video to present. I do not want to disregard both concerns, which is why I believe the best way to approach the theme of population is to highlight both sides of the theme.